This course introduces basic ideas of probability.
It focuses on dealing with uncertainty in a financial context and explores decision trees, a powerful decision-making technique, which can help you to simplify and formulate business decisions. The course also includes videos that introduce the key ideas and guide you through numerous examples.
Course learning outcomes
After studying this course, you should be able to:
- Deal with basic uncertainty in a decision-making context
- Understand the basic ideas of probability
- Calculate expected values
- Produce and analyse a decision tree.
- Introduction 00:10:00
- Learning outcomes 00:10:00
- Dealing with uncertainty: an introduction to probability 00:15:00
- Expected values 00:10:00
- Decision trees 00:20:00
- Decision trees and expected value 00:30:00
- A complex decision tree – deciding whether or not to launch a product early 00:15:00
- A complex decision tree – developing a new pharmaceutical drug 00:15:00
- Conclusion 00:10:00
About the instructor