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Last updated:

September 26, 2022


Unlimited Duration


This course includes:

Unlimited Duration

Badge on Completion

Certificate of completion

Unlimited Duration


This course covers interpretations of the concept of probability.

Topics include basic probability rules; random variables and distribution functions; functions of random variables; and applications to quality control and the reliability assessment of mechanical/electrical components, as well as simple structures and redundant systems. The course also considers elements of statistics; Bayesian methods in engineering; methods for reliability and risk assessment of complex systems (event-tree and fault-tree analysis, common-cause failures, human reliability models); uncertainty propagation in complex systems (Monte Carlo methods, Latin Hypercube Sampling); and an introduction to Markov models. Examples and applications are drawn from nuclear and other industries, waste repositories, and mechanical systems.

Course Curriculum

    • Risk, Event Trees and Fault Trees Unlimited
    • Reliability and Availability Unlimited
    • Structure Functions Unlimited
    • Valve Test Example Unlimited
    • Basic Probabilistic Concepts Unlimited
    • Convergence of Binomial and Normal Distributions for Large Numbers of Trials Unlimited
    • Convergence of Binomial and Poisson Distributions in Limiting Case of n Large, p<<1 Unlimited
    • Plane Crash Example Unlimited
    • Failure, Repair, Maintenance Unlimited
    • Reliability and Availability Unlimited
    • Operational Availability Unlimited
    • Bayes’ Theorem Unlimited
    • Bayesian Inference Unlimited
    • PRA: An Historical Perspective Unlimited
    • PRA Structure and Results Unlimited
    • Uncertainty Unlimited
    • Types of Uncertainty Unlimited
    • Common Cause Failures 1 Unlimited
    • Common Cause Failures 2 Unlimited
    • PRA in Managing Operations Unlimited
    • Engineered Safety Features Unlimited
    • Containment Unlimited

About the instructor

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology